Solo mining profitability is tricky because it's probabilistic - you might never earn anything, or you might hit the jackpot tomorrow. But with proper math, you can understand your expected value and make informed decisions.
Predictable, simple math. You know exactly what you'll earn daily.
Probabilistic, uncertain. Expected value vs actual outcome.
Solo mining with home equipment is mathematically profitable on average, but practically you'll likely earn nothing. The math says "yes" but reality says "probably not in your lifetime."
How many hashes per second your equipment can calculate. Higher = better odds.
Total mining power worldwide. Changes every ~2 weeks with difficulty adjustment.
Current reward: 3.125 BTC per block (halves every 4 years)
Directly affects reward value. Assumes ~$100,000/BTC for examples in this guide.
Your biggest ongoing expense. US average: $0.12/kWh
How much power your miner draws 24/7.
One-time purchase price affects ROI timeline.
Let's start with the core equation:
Solo mining requires probability calculations:
| Your Hashrate | Avg Years to Block | Daily Odds | Yearly Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.2 TH/s (Bitaxe) | ~7,926 years | 1 in 2,894,000 | 1 in 7,937 |
| 6 TH/s (Avalon) | ~1,585 years | 1 in 578,800 | 1 in 1,587 |
| 200 TH/s (S21) | ~48 years | 1 in 17,361 | 1 in 48 |
| 2,000 TH/s (10x S21) | ~4.8 years | 1 in 1,736 | 1 in 4.8 |
Expected value is what you'd earn "on average" if you mined forever. Reality is different:
"If you mine forever, you'll earn $39/year on average"
"You'll probably mine for 30 years and earn $0"
ROI tells you how long until you recover your hardware investment:
| Equipment | Hardware Cost | Pool ROI | Solo Expected ROI | Reality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitaxe | $200 | Never | 8.5 years | Probably never |
| Avalon Nano | $300 | Never | 7.2 years | Probably never |
| Antminer S21 | $3,000 | ~4 years | 3.1 years | Maybe (48yr avg) |
| 10x S21 Farm | $30,000 | 2.8 years | 2.4 years | Likely (4.8yr avg) |
At what point does your operation become unprofitable?
| Equipment | Max $/kWh (Pool) | Min BTC Price | Profitable? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitaxe (1.2 TH/s) | $0.029/kWh | $40,000 | No (at $0.12/kWh) |
| Avalon (6 TH/s) | $0.033/kWh | $32,000 | No (at $0.12/kWh) |
| S21 (200 TH/s) | $0.144/kWh | $29,000 | Yes (at $0.12/kWh) |
99.87% chance: Spent $357.70 total, found 0 blocks = -$357.70 loss
0.126% chance: Found 1 block = +$312,142 profit
0.008% chance: Found 2+ blocks = +$624,142+ profit
Total electricity: $12,600
Total hardware: $3,000
10% chance found 1+ blocks = huge profit
90% chance found 0 blocks = -$15,600 loss
Expected blocks found: ~1.05 blocks
Revenue: ~$328,125
Total costs: $106,650
Net profit: +$221,475
ROI: Hardware recovered + profit
Many calculators show gross revenue. Always subtract electricity! It's your biggest ongoing expense.
Your earnings decrease 20-40% per year as difficulty rises. Today's profitability ≠ next year's profitability.
Just because the math says +EV doesn't mean you'll profit. 99% of small solo miners earn $0.
Your ASIC loses 50% of value in 2 years and becomes worthless in 4. Factor this into ROI.
Always use current network hashrate (~500 EH/s in 2026), not historical data. It changes every 2 weeks.
BTC volatility dramatically affects profitability. $50k vs $150k BTC = 3x difference in revenue.
Real-time solo mining probability calculator with live difficulty data, expected value, and profitability analysis.
Create your own custom profitability spreadsheet with these columns: